Market Dynamics and Investment Decisions in Real Estate Under Insecurity: Evidence from Boko Haram-Impacted Regions in Nigeria

Abstract

This study examines the transformation of real estate market dynamics and investment decision-making processes in Nigeria’s Boko Haram-impacted regions, with particular focus on Borno, Yobe, Adamawa, Kano, and Kaduna states. Using secondary data from the International Organization for Migration (IOM) Displacement Tracking Matrix, National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) reports, and qualitative insights from focus group discussions conducted in Maiduguri and Yola (2020–2021), the study analyzes property value fluctuations, vacancy rates, rental price dynamics, and housing deficit impacts. Findings reveal that the insurgency increased housing deficits by 43% in Borno State, caused property demand to decline by 40% in Northern Nigeria, and resulted in vacancy rates reaching 30% across affected states. Property prices in prime Kano locations declined by 30–40% to approximately $36,000 per plot, while rental prices in Maiduguri escalated by 100–400% due to internally displaced person (IDP) influx. The study concludes that insecurity has emerged as a dominant force reshaping Nigeria’s real estate landscape, with investors adopting risk-averse strategies and developers withdrawing from high-risk areas. The paper proposes a multi-tiered policy framework for sector recovery.