Developing an Environmentally Sustainable Framework for Managing Urban Growth in Abuja, Nigeria

Abstract

Urbanisation has emerged as a key source of land use change and environment change in developing cities. The study utilized geospatial analysis and a stakeholder assessment to evaluate the dynamics of urban growth and formulate an environmentally sustainable urban growth framework for the city of Abuja, Nigeria. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and Google Earth Engine (GEE) were used to assess changes in land use/land cover (LULC) based on multi-temporal satellite imagery from 1987, 2002, 2017 and 2025. Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and descriptive statistics were applied to identify the factors driving urban growth and the related sustainability challenges. The findings showed that there was a huge landscape change during the study period. Built-up land increased from 6.0 km² (1.0%) in 1987 to 267.6 km² (44.2%) in 2025, while vegetation declined from 519.7 km² (85.9%) to 195.2 km² (32.3%). The results show that urban growth has occurred quickly and in conjunction with significant loss of natural vegetation. The population growth, housing demand, infrastructure development, commercialization and real estate investment were major contributing factors to urban growth. The factor analysis revealed five dimensions that are key to sustainable urban development: Urban Growth Pressure, Infrastructure and Economic Development, Environmental Sustainability Challenges, Governance and Planning Control, and Sustainable Urban Growth Strategies. The study developed an Environmentally Sustainable Urban Growth Framework that combines these elements to assist planning and decision making. The framework offers a workable solution to the challenge of implementing sustainable, resilient, and good land-use planning in Abuja during urban development.