NIGERIA’S AGRICULTURAL EXPORT TRADE WITH SELECTED AFRICAN PARTNER COUNTRIES: TRADE INTENSITY, EXPORT POTENTIALS AND GRAVITY MODEL ANALYSIS

Abstract

This study analyzed Nigeria’s agricultural export trade with selected African partner countries, focusing on trade intensity, unrealized export potential, and the economic and geographical factors influencing bilateral exports. The study covered nine African countries: Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana and Togo in West Africa; South Africa, Angola and Zimbabwe in Southern Africa; and Egypt, Morocco and Algeria in North Africa. Secondary annual data covering 2020–2024 were obtained from the International Trade Centre (Trade Map), UN Comtrade, CEPII and the World Bank. Agricultural products classified under Harmonized System (HS) Chapters 01–24 were examined, with particular attention to cocoa beans, sesame, cashew nuts and ginger. Descriptive and trend analyses, Trade Intensity Index and International Trade Centre Export Potential Map were employed, while pooled Ordinary Least Squares, Fixed Effects, Random Effects and robust estimators were used to estimate the gravity model. The results indicated substantial fluctuations and relatively limited export flows for several agricultural commodities across the selected African markets. The Export Potential Map revealed unrealized opportunities in several destinations, particularly Morocco, Egypt, Algeria and South Africa, although the magnitude varied by commodity. The Hausman specification test supported the Fixed Effects model. Nigeria’s GDP had a negative and significant effect on agricultural exports, while destination-country GDP had a positive and significant effect in the Fixed Effects specification. Destination population exhibited a negative and significant coefficient, although its interpretation was constrained by substantial multicollinearity with destination GDP. Geographical distance negatively influenced exports in the pooled, Random Effects and robust specifications. The study recommends strengthening trade facilitation, transport infrastructure, export logistics, product quality compliance, and market-specific export promotion to improve Nigeria’s utilization of identified African agricultural export opportunities. These measures could enhance market access and support sustained expansion of agricultural exports within the African regional market.