DYNAMICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT IN SUB SAHARAN AFRICA

Abstract

Africa is disproportionately affected by climate change despite contributing minimally to global 
greenhouse gas emissions. While existing studies largely focus on carbon emissions, other 
greenhouse gases, particularly methane, remain underexplored. This study investigates the nexus 
between climate change and human development in 30 Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries using 
panel data from 2010 to 2022 obtained from the World Bank, Statista, and Country Economy. Human 
development was proxied by the Human Development Index (HDI), while climate change was 
captured using Average Annual Temperature (TEM), Carbon Emissions (CO₂), Methane Emissions 
(MET), Forest Depletion (FOR), and Average Precipitation (PRE). Institutional Quality (INQ) and 
Population Growth Rate (PGR) were included as control variables. Given cross-sectional dependence, 
the CIPS Second-Generation Unit Root test was applied. The study employed the Two-Step System 
Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), with robustness checks using Two-Step Difference GMM, 
Fixed Effects, and Random Effects models. Findings revealed that climate change significantly 
affects human development in SSA. CO₂ had mixed effects—positive under System GMM but 
negative under Difference GMM. TEM, MET, and FOR exerted negative and significant impacts on 
HDI, while PRE had a positive influence. The study recommends improved management of carbon 
and methane emissions and increased investment in climate resilience mechanisms to mitigate 
extreme weather impacts and safeguard human development in SSA.