NAU Eco Journals-by Department of Economics, Nnamdi Azikiwe University, Awka
IMPACT OF MONETARY AND EXCHANGE RATE POLICIES ON TRADE BALANCE IN NIGERIA
The balance of trade measures the difference between a country's exports and imports. A trade surplus occurs when exports exceed imports, while a trade deficit happens when imports surpass exports. This research explores how monetary and exchange rate policies affect the balance of trade, using various macroeconomic theories such as monetary approach and purchasing power parity. Analyzing time series data from 1981 to 2023, the study examines factors like trade balance, monetary policy rate, real exchange rates, consumer price index, world oil price, investment, GDP, and trade openness. The ARDL model was used to evaluate both the short-run and long-term co-integration of these variables. Results show that, in the short term, the monetary policy rate and real exchange rate do not significantly impact Nigeria's oil or non-oil sectors or overall trade balance. However, in the long term, both have a significant relationship with Nigeria's trade balance. The study suggests that monetary authorities maintain lending interest rates for foreign traders at a single-digit level to improve accessibility and sustainability, thus enhancing international trade and the Federal Government, through the Central Bank of Nigeria, should work to stabilize the foreign exchange market to reduce fluctuations in the nominal effective exchange rate.
DOES CAPITAL ACCOUNT LIBERALIZATION PROMOTE ECONOMIC GROWTH IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: INVESTIGATING THE NIGERIAN AND SOUTH AFRICAN EXPERIENCE
This study examines whether capital account liberalization (CAL) promotes economic growth in developing countries, with a specific focus on the experiences of Nigeria and South Africa. The motivation stems from mixed empirical evidence on CAL’s growth effects and the need to understand why some developing countries gain while others face instability, particularly in the context of external financial shocks like the 2008 global financial crisis. The study employs a critical review of empirical literature and a descriptive comparative analysis of macroeconomic outcomes (FDI, portfolio investment, exchange rates, GDP growth, and market capitalization) in Nigeria and South Africa before, during, and after the 2008 crisis, using data from World Bank WDI (2022) and CBN statistical bulletins. CAL’s impact on growth is neither automatic nor uniform; it is contingent on complementary factors such as institutional quality, macroeconomic policy soundness, and regulatory oversight. While Nigeria experienced severe macroeconomic disruptions during the 2008 crisis, evidenced by a sharp drop in market capitalization (over 100%), portfolio reversal, and sustained GDP slowdown, South Africa showed greater resilience due to more developed financial markets and a gradual, sequenced approach to liberalization. The study therefore recommends that developing countries should adopt a gradual and well sequenced CAL strategy, underpinned by strong institutional frameworks, prudent macroeconomic management, and effective financial regulation to mitigate risks from capital flow volatility and external shocks.
DIGITAL TRANSFORMATION OF ILLICIT DRUG NETWORKS AND THEIR ECONOMIC IMPACT ON NIGERIA
The rapid transformation of illicit drug networks as a result of digital technologies that enable anonymous communication, encrypted transactions, and borderless criminal interactions has raised serious concerns for national security and economic stability. In Nigeria, the digital evolution of illicit drug networks has significant economic implications, as internet penetration, cyber trafficking, and policy gaps have reshaped narcotics distribution, financing, and concealment. The study explores how these digital shifts influence the structure of drug markets, the economy, and the effectiveness of national counter-narcotics efforts. Data were collected through a structured nationwide online questionnaire designed to capture public awareness, behavioural patterns, and perceptions of the economic risks associated with digital drug trafficking. Responses were analyzed using descriptive statistics, including measures of central tendency, dispersion, skewness, and kurtosis, to systematically interpret trends and public perceptions. Findings reveal a strong national consensus that increased internet accessibility has expanded online drug markets and weakened traditional control mechanisms. Respondents emphasized that cryptocurrency transactions and encrypted digital platforms facilitate trafficking, promote capital flight, and contribute to economic leakages that undermine growth. Results also indicate that outdated regulatory frameworks, inadequate digital monitoring, and limited inter-agency coordination reduce the effectiveness of current counter-narcotics efforts. Overall, the study demonstrates a clear link between technological advancement and economic vulnerability, concluding that digital drug trafficking poses a major threat to Nigeria’s economic stability and social security. A key recommendation is the establishment of a national digital intelligence framework integrating data analytics, financial monitoring, and coordinated enforcement to disrupt online narcotics networks and strengthen economic resilience.
FINANCIAL TECHNOLOGY AND POVERTY REDUCTION IN NIGERIA
Despite the advancement of financial innovations and inclusion, poverty remains a major issue in Nigeria due to the existence of high poverty incidence rates, which pose pressure on people’s standard of living. Therefore, the study examines the impact of financial technology on poverty reduction in Nigeria from 1986 to 2024. Annual time series data was sourced from World Bank, and Central Bank of Nigeria, while the data were analysed using vector error correction mechanisms (VECM). The findings of the study showed that fintech and inflation have negative but significant impact on poverty reduction in Nigeria. The results further found that financial inclusion, and deepening, have positive but insignificant impact while literacy rate and institutional quality have positive and significant impact on poverty in Nigeria. It is suggested that efforts should be made by policymakers to encourage digital financial innovations, and expand financial inclusion initiatives in order to achieve reduction in the levels of poverty.
NIGERIA’S MACROECONOMY AND LIFE EXPECTANCY: EVIDENCE FROM A NONLINEAR ARDL TECHNIQUE
Nigerian’s life expectancy rate falls below regional and international level despite being the largest economy in Africa. This study investigates the impact of Nigeria’s macroeconomy on life expectancy using time series data from 1986 to 2023. The study employed the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model and the findings, both in the short and long run, positive and negative economic growth have positive and significant impact on life expectancy in Nigeria. Also, negative inflation and physician per capita have positive but insignificant impact on life expectancy in Nigeria. On the other hand, positive inflation has negative but significant impact on life expectancy in the short run but insignificant impact in the long run. Positive unemployment has negative but significant impact in the long run, while the impact in the short run was insignificant. The result further revealed that positive inflation in the long run has negative and insignificant impact while negative unemployment and institutional quality, both in the long and short run have negative and insignificant impact. Based on the findings of the study, it is recommended that policies that promote inclusive economic growth, stabilize prices, create employment opportunities, and enhance environmental sustainability are critical for achieving meaningful improvements in life expectancy, and overall health outcomes.
LABOUR EMIGRATION AND THE NIGERIAN LABOUR MARKET
Labour migration plays a crucial role in shaping labour market dynamics and productivity, particularly in developing economies. This study is grounded in the neo-classical labour market theory and it examines the impact of labour emigration on labour market conditions in Nigeria from 1990 to 2022. Specifically, it investigates the effects of labour emigration on unemployment, income inequality, and labour force participation. Employing the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) estimation technique, three models were specified to address each research objective. The findings reveal a mixed asymmetric relationship between labour emigration, proxied by net migration, and unemployment in Nigeria. While increased labour emigration is associated with higher unemployment in the short run, it contributes to a reduction in unemployment over the long run. Regarding income inequality, the results indicate that labour emigration exerts a significant long-run inverse asymmetric effect, with no notable short-run impact. Additionally, labour emigration is found to influence labour force participation asymmetrically, exhibiting a mixed effect in the long run and an inverse asymmetric effect in the short run. These findings highlight the complex interactions between labour emigration and key labour market indicators. In light of the results, this study recommends that policymakers should implement targeted policies to enhance wage levels and improve working conditions. Strengthening labour market policies may help mitigate adverse short-term effects and promote labour retention, ensuring a more stable and equitable labour market in Nigeria.
ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT AND PERFORMANCE OF LISTED CONSUMER GOODS COMPANIES IN NIGERIA: THE MODERATING EFFECT OF BOARD INDEPENDENCE
This study empirically examined the effect of economic environment on the performance of listed consumer goods companies in Nigeria. The panel data set for 15 listed consumer goods companies spanning from 2014 to 2023 were sourced from Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX), and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). Methodologically, descriptive statistical techniques, correlation analysis technique, as well as fixed and random effect models were used to examine the degree of association among the variables to investigate the effect of interest rate, exchange rate and inflation (as proxies for economic environment) on the performance of listed consumer goods companies (proxied by firm value based on Tobin’s Q) in Nigeria. On the whole, the results showed that interest rate, inflation and board independence have positive and statistically significant impact on organizational performance on consumer goods companies in Nigeria; while exchange rate has negative but insignificant effect on organizational performance on consumer goods companies. Furthermore, the results of moderating effect showed that board independence significantly moderated the effect of interest rate, inflation and exchange rate on organizational performance on consumer goods companies over the period of the study. Finally, the study recommends for management of the companies use periods of lower interest rates to lock in long-term financial agreements related to fixed-rate debt and capital expenditures; adopt backward integration and local sourcing of raw materials in order to reduce high reliance on imported inflation; domesticate their supply chain in order to reduce excessive demand for foreign currency; and constitute a “macroeconomic risk assessment” sub-committee to be chaired by an independent director for effective monitoring of changes in macroeconomic business environment.
EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF HUMAN CAPITAL DEVELOPMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: EVIDENCE FROM AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG (ARDL)
The paradox in Nigeria’s development trajectory, despite its abundant youthful population and natural resources, has given rise to an empirical study of human capital development and its impact on Nigeria’s economic growth. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) estimation technique was employed, with human capital index (HCI), government expenditure on education (GEE), and labour force participation (LFP) as core explanatory variables, and real gross domestic product (RGDP) as the control variable. Data were drawn from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletins 2024, National Bureau of Statistics, World Bank Development Indicators 2024 and International Labour Organisation annual data 2024. The result of the study indicated that human capital index has statistically significant positive impact on economic growth in the short run but a negative impact in the long-run. Government expenditure on education and labour force participation has statistically positive impact in both the short and long run. Therefore, the study concluded that structural weaknesses and insufficient long-term human capital development are the bane of economic growth in Nigeria and recommends a comprehensive restructuring of education to enhance efficiency, a better reward system for skilled human capital, the promotion of active labour market participation and strengthening the productivity of human capital. These measures are essential if long term contribution of human capital to economic growth in Nigeria can be sustained.
HARNESSING GIRL CHILD EDUCATION TO REDUCE THE INCIDENCE OF POVERTY IN NIGERIA
Poverty remains a persistent challenge in Nigeria, driven by structural inequalities, limited access to quality education, and gender disparities. This study investigates the impact of girl child education on poverty reduction in Nigeria from 2000 to 2023 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. Guided by the Structural Theory of Poverty, the analysis draws on data from UNESCO, WDI, NBS, and CBN. Findings reveal that a 1% increase in female enrolment at the tertiary level reduces poverty by 3.8%, while improvements in human capital and government effectiveness further enhance this relationship. The study concludes that expanding access to girl-child education is a critical policy lever for breaking intergenerational cycles of poverty and achieving sustainable development. It recommends gender-inclusive education reforms, enhanced governance, and targeted investments in rural and conflict-affected regions.
A STRUCTURAL VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION (VEC) APPROACH TO ANALYZING THE DYNAMICS OF INFLATION IN NIGERIA
This study employed a structural vector error correction (SVEC) framework to investigate the dynamic interactions among inflation, money supply, and real GDP. The variables are all integrated of order one and cointegrated. The shocks were identified by decomposing them into permanent and transitory in tandem with the underlying economic theory. In the short-run, the results revealed that shocks to inflation (permanent shocks) were predominantly driven by innovations in money supply and output. To identify the long run shocks, investment was constrained to have zero effects on the other variables; this way, investment shocks were found to be purely transitory which implies that fluctuations in investment primarily generate short run deviations from equilibrium without altering the long-run path of inflation, money supply, or output. These results point to the need for maintaining credible and consistent monetary policy measures, and fostering sustainable output growth which could help in achieving long term price stability.
DETERMINANTS OF POVERTY REDUCTION IN NIGERIA: A TIME SERIES APPROACH INCORPORATING SELF-EMPLOYMENT AND SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS
Nigeria has faced continuous challenges in fighting poverty even though the country has implemented various economic reforms and established employment initiatives. This is evident in high incidences of poverty, high unemployment rate and economic instability. The study will investigate how self-employment affects poverty reduction in Nigeria between 1990 and 2024 by using data from the WDI National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin. The research used Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) method to determine long-term connections between poverty and various tested explanatory variables. The findings revealed that self-employment and human capital development have negative but significant impact on poverty while access to electricity and credit have negative and insignificant impact. The impact of inflation on poverty is positive and statistically significant. Thus, it is recommended that government should formulate policies that improve the productivity of self-employment, including increased skill development and entrepreneur training programs and improved business environment as well as solving macroeconomic problems like inflation, which weaken the poverty alleviation potential of self employment.
ECONOMIC FREEDOM AND ECONOMIC MISERY IN NIGERIA: EVIDENCE FROM A FOURIER QUANTILE ARDL APPROACH
The paper analyses the relationship between economic freedom and economic misery in Nigeria based on an annual time series of economic data as of 1980-2024. Fourier Quantile Autoregressive Distributed Lag FQARDL was used. Long-run quantile process estimates and short-run impact coefficients of the entire range of variables are statistically non-significant at the lower and upper quantiles of the misery distribution; but generally, are directionally consistent with a priori expectations. The impulse response analysis however reveals that a positive shock to economic freedom creates a negative and sustained cumulative reaction in economic misery. The impact is more intense at the lower quantile showing that economic misery becomes mitigated more efficiently in times of relative macroeconomic stability. These results imply that even though economic freedom can alleviate misery in Nigeria, it is limited by poor institutions, inconsistencies in policy, and structural inflexibility. The paper thus suggests that economic liberalisation, coupled with good institutional reforms, effective monetary policy, and more diversified foreign investment policy should be adopted to enable full transmissions of the welfare gains of economic freedom to the Nigerian households.
FINANCIAL TECHNOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY IN NIGERIA: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS
The issues of environmental sustainability are still a major challenge in Nigeria, especially due to the country’s dependence on carbon-based energy sources and the absence of adequate infrastructural capacity. Consequently, this research work investigates the impact of financial technology (FinTech) on environmental sustainability in Nigeria from 1986 to 2024 using a Vector Error Correction Model. The data was collected from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), World Bank, and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The results show that financial technology (fintech) and financial inclusion are both positive and significantly related to environmental sustainability. Financial infrastructure and government expenditure show positive but statistically insignificant impacts. Energy consumption and urbanization negatively affect environmental sustainability but are insignificant. The error correction result shows a slow movement towards the long-run equilibrium. Moreover, the model accounts for 65% of the variation in environmental sustainability. Therefore, based on the results, policymakers are advised to develop digital finance infrastructure, education, and inclusion initiatives in order to use the environmental potential of FinTech.
HEALTH OUTCOMES AND ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY NEXUS: AN ARDL APPROACH TO COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS FOR THE CASE OF NIGERIA
Environmental degradation and pollutants have, over the years, deteriorates health outcomes through decline in life expectancy and rising mortality, notably from cardiovascular and respiratory-related diseases in less developed countries. This study adds to the existing literature on the environmental quality-health nexus within the context of Nigeria using the data from 1980 to 2021 sourced from World Bank’s World Development Indicators. Using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration, the findings of the study revealed the presence of long-run relationship between environmental quality and health outcomes proxied by carbon emission and life expectancy respectively as well as foreign direct investment (FDI) and labour force as control variables. Specifically, carbon emission per capita is found to have negative and statistically significant impact on life expectancy where a unit increase in carbon emission reduces life expectancy by 0.6872 and 0.7030 in both the short and long-run respectively. While FDI is reported to have significant impact on life expectancy in both short-run and long-run, labour force has no significant impact. These findings call for swift response from Nigeria’s government to treat pollution-induced health challenges as matter of urgent concern. In view of this, the study recommends, among others, transition from traditional energy sources of cooking fuels, notably solid fuels such as wood and charcoal which are among the major sources of respiratory illnesses to a cleaner source like LPG, ethanol, and improved cook stoves which minimizes indoor carbon emissions. This can be achieved by incorporating clean energy access in the social protection programmes and partnership with the leadership of local communities for the distribution of clean energy equipment at subsidized rate as well as massive awareness campaigns about the health effects associated with the traditional cooking energy sources. Also, establishing air quality sensors in major cities and industrial zones in order to enhance air quality monitoring cannot be over emphasized.
ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINTS AND HEALTH OUTCOMES IN LOWER MIDDLE INCOME WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES
This study examines the effects of ecological footprints on health outcomes in seven lower middle-income West African countries over the period 1990–2024, using the Common Correlated Effects Mean Group (CCEMG) and Augmented Mean Group (AMG) estimators, which account for cross-sectional dependence, slope heterogeneity, and non-stationarity in panel data analysis. The empirical results show that an increase in ecological footprint reduces life expectancy, while increasing maternal mortality and infant mortality. At the component level, built-up land, forest products, and fishing grounds emerge as the most significant drivers of deteriorating health outcomes in the region. In contrast, government health expenditure and urbanization significantly reduce both maternal and infant mortality, while secondary school enrollment positively influences life expectancy and also helps to reduce infant mortality. However, GDP per capita is found to have no statistically significant effect on any of the health outcome indicators. Overall, the findings underscore the urgent need for environmentally sustainable development policies, as well as targeted investments in healthcare and education, to improve population health outcomes across lower-middle-income West African countries
SOCIOECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL DETERMINANTS OF ACCESS TO SAFE DRINKING WATER IN NIGERIA: A MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION APPROACH FOR THE CASE OF NORTHEASTERN STATES
This study investigates socioeconomic and environmental determinants of households’ access to safe drinking water in Nigeria using data from the 2024-NDHS for the Northeastern region. The population comprises 5977 households surveyed across the six Northeastern states, and of these, 2310 households were reported to have no access to safe drinking water, thereby constituting the event of interest for this study. Also, Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) is used to estimate parameters that best fit the observed data within the framework of the binomial logistic regression model. The findings revealed that economic status has a positive and significant influence, such that as households’ economic status rises, access to safe drinking water also improves. Similarly, households located in urban centers are, on average, three times more likely to have access to safe drinking water than their rural counterparts. The results further revealed that households whose water source is located outside are nearly six times more likely to have access to safe drinking water compared to those who have water on premises. However, the level of education reveals a negative and statistically significant relationship with safe water access, indicating that households with higher education are less likely to have access compared to those with no education which sharply contradicted the a priori expectation of this study. Finally, households whose water source is located outside are nearly six times more likely to have access to safe drinking water compared to those who have water on premises. Hence, the study recommends for reduction of financial barriers for low income households by government as well as integrating government’s policy focus on ‘access’ with ‘quality assurance’ when making effort to expand safe water points closer to underserved communities.
URBAN AND PERI-URBAN COOKING ENERGIES DYNAMICS AMONG HOUSEHOLDS IN UMUAHIA ZONE OF ABIA STATE, NIGERIA
The research paper focused on the dynamics of urban and peri-urban cooking energies preference among the households in Umuahia zone of Abia State, Nigeria. In particular, the paper has analyzed the urban and peri-urban cooking energies consumptions dynamics and factors that affected households’ cooking energies choice and difficulties in using cooking energies by households. Multi-stage purposive and random sampling methodology was used in order to select 120 household heads (60 urban and 60 peri-urban household heads). Data were gathered using structured questionnaire from primary source. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics of mean and standard deviation and inferential statistics of multinomial logit model. The study findings depicted that the more frequently used sources of cooking energy among urban households in the region were LPG (Gas) (3.93), Electricity (3.24), Kerosene (2.75) and Charcoal (2.56). Alternatively, households in peri-urban/rural regions more frequently use fuelwood (3.80), charcoal (3.51), kerosene (2.85) and crop residues (2.77) as cooking energies. The socioeconomic variables that play major role in preference for cooking energies by the households are: location (urban and peri-urban), education, household size, income, primary occupation and age at 1 and 5%. Urban household problems in energy consumption for cooking include: unhealthy cooking with firewood and charcoal, dirty cooking of some energies e.g fuelwood, high cost of modern energy sources and increasing poverty among the people while and the challenges confronting peri-urban/rural households in cooking energy use include: increasing poverty among the people, high cost of modern energy sources, non-availability of modern energies and lack of regular supply of electricity. According to the results, the research other among them proposed subsidizing the prices of available clean sources of cooking energy in order to make them affordable to the majority of the low income households in the urban and peri-urban regions in the state.
INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION NEXUS IN NIGERIA
Given the rate of degradation of the natural environment, as well as the continuous increase in international trade, this study seeks to determine the relationship between international trade and environmental degradation in Nigeria from 1982 to 2023. The study was anchored in the framework of the Stochastic Impacts by Regression on the PAT (STIRPAT) model. It adopted the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to estimate the long-run relationships among indicators of international trade and environmental degradation. The bounds test for cointegration showed the existence of a long-run relationship among international trade, environmental policy, trade policy and environmental degradation for the period reviewed. The findings revealed that trade openness, real GDP and urbanisation had a significant positive impact on environmental degradation in Nigeria, while environmental policy, trade policy and technological advancement had a negative and significant impact on environmental degradation in Nigeria. The study therefore concludes that, in Nigeria, there exists a positive relationship between international trade and environmental degradation and a negative relationship between environmental policies, trade policies and environmental degradation. It therefore recommends that the adoption of cleaner and sustainable technologies in industries through incentives be encouraged while maintaining good environmental regulations.
SOCIOECONOMIC DETERMINANTS OF HOUSEHOLDS’ ACCESS TO SAFE DRINKING WATER IN NORTH EASTERN NIGERIA: A BINOMIAL LOGISTIC REGRESSION APPROACH
Access to safe drinking water is a critical factor in determining public health and socioeconomic development, particularly in developing countries like Nigeria. This study examines the socioeconomic determinants of household access to safe drinking water in Northeastern Nigeria, using data from the 2021 Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS). Employing a binomial logistic regression model, the research identifies the influence of factors such as, educational level, geographical location, wealth index, gender and age of household heads, location of water source, time spent getting water and household size on access to safe drinking water. Descriptive statistics reveal that 65% of households have access to safe drinking water while 35% do not have access, 91.16% of households are male-headed, with the majority (82.93%) having no formal education. Rural households constitute 67.56% of the sample, and nearly two-thirds of the population fall within the poorest and poor economic categories. The logistic regression analysis indicates that higher education level, urban residency, middle-age and water located on-premises significantly increase the likelihood of accessing improved water sources, while lower wealth index and male headed households reduce this likelihood. The findings highlight critical disparities in access to safe drinking water, emphasizing the need for targeted policies that prioritize rural and low-income households, encourage educational empowerment, and promote infrastructure development to ensure equitable water access. The study contributes to the growing body of knowledge on the determinants of water access and provides actionable insights for policymakers and stakeholders in Nigeria’s water and sanitation sector.
THE LINK BETWEEN MONEY SUPPLY AND INFLATION: THE EXPERIENCE OF NIGERIA’S ECONOMY
This study investigates the relationship between money supply and inflation in Nigeria from 2004 to 2023, using OLS regression and Granger causality tests with key variables (Money Supply (M2), Consumer Price index (CPI), Gross domestic Product (GDP), Real Effective Exchange Rate (EXR), and Monetary Policy rate (MPR). Results show that money supply significantly raises inflation, while GDP and MPR dampen it, and exchange rate volatility intensifies it. The Granger causality result reveals that inflation drives money supply rather than the reverse, implying monetary expansion in Nigeria is reactive to inflationary pressures. The study concludes that effective inflation control requires proactive monetary policy supported by structural reforms to foster sustainable economic growth.
MONETARY POLICY AND EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS IN NIGERIA
Exchange rate stability remains a central concern for Nigeria’s economic performance, given its implications for growth, investment, and external competitiveness. Persistent exchange rate volatility has raised questions about the effectiveness of monetary policy in managing macroeconomic stability. This study investigates the impact of monetary policy on exchange rate dynamics in Nigeria using annual time series data from 1986 to 2023. The analysis applied the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework, and the results showed that money supply exerted a positive but insignificant impact on the real exchange rate, while interest rate has positive and significant impact. On the other hand, real gross domestic product and credit to private sector have negative but significant impact on exchange rate behaviour. Similarly, inflation rate negatively impacted exchange rate dynamics but the impact was not significant. These findings highlight the crucial role of monetary policy in exchange rate management. The study therefore recommends that government authorities should adopt sound monetary policies to promote exchange rate stability, while the Central Bank of Nigeria should implement a single-digit interest rate regime to lower the cost of capital, encourage private sector investment, and improve the ease of doing business.
IMPACT OF AGRICULTURAL FINANCING ON AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY IN NIGERIA: MODERATING EFFECT OF CORRUPTION
Over the years, the Nigerian government has introduced several initiatives to enhance agricultural financing, including the Agricultural Promotion Policy (APP), Anchor Borrowers Programme (ABP), Commercial Agriculture Credit Scheme (CACS), and NIRSA. However, agricultural output has not grown proportionately, largely due to corruption. Once a global exporter of cocoa, palm oil, and groundnuts, Nigeria now depends heavily on imports of staples such as rice and wheat. While agricultural financing is known to boost productivity, the moderating role of corruption remains less explored. This study investigates the impact of agricultural financing on agricultural productivity in Nigeria, with corruption as a moderating factor. Annual time series data from 1996–2022 were sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), World Development Indicators (WDI), and Transparency International (TI). The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was employed to capture both short- and long-run dynamics, with structural breaks incorporated through dummy variables. Results show that government agricultural expenditure has a positive but statistically insignificant effect on productivity, while the interaction between expenditure and corruption exerts a negative and significant effect in both the short and long run. This indicates that corruption undermines the effectiveness of agricultural financing. The study recommends strengthening transparency and monitoring of agricultural spending, reinforcing anti-corruption mechanisms, and ensuring policy consistency to maximize the benefits of agricultural financing.
FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IN NIGERIA
Achieving full employment remains a persistent macroeconomic challenge in Nigeria, where unemployment is influenced by both financial and non-financial sector dynamics. This study examined the impact of financial development on Nigeria’s unemployment rate using the data for the period 1980-2023, focusing on four key dimensions: financial access, financial depth, financial efficiency, and financial stability. The study is anchored on the Keynesian and Neo-Keynesian theories of unemployment, the McKinnon-Shaw hypothesis, and the theory of financial intermediation, offering a comprehensive framework for understanding the link between financial systems and labour market outcomes. Using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model, the analysis captures both the long-run and short-run asymmetric effects of financial development indicators on unemployment. The results reveal that in the long run, negative shocks to financial access and financial efficiency exert significant effects on unemployment, while other indicators such as financial depth and stability remain statistically insignificant. In the short run, however, none of the individual financial development variables show a statistically significant influence on unemployment. The error correction term is negative and significant, confirming a stable long-run relationship and indicating a relatively fast speed of adjustment toward equilibrium. The findings underscore the need for well-targeted financial sector reforms and inclusive financial policies that support labour market recovery and sustainable economic development. Based on the findings, the study concludes that financial development is an important but indirect and delayed mechanism for reducing unemployment in Nigeria. Therefore, reforms aimed at enhancing financial inclusion, improving financial market depth and efficiency, and stabilizing the financial system must be accompanied by policies that address labour market frictions, skill mismatches, and economic diversification.
YIELD CURVE, INFLATION, EXCHANGE RATE AND THE NIGERIA’S FUTURE ECONOMIC GROWTH: A VAR APPROACH
This paper analysed the predictive ability of the yield curve on macroeconomic variable or real activity (GDP) using Vector autoregressive (VAR) model for Nigeria. A quarterly data was utilized for the period 2003q1 to 2023q4. One popular stylized fact in macroeconomics remains the forecasting ability of the term spread (yield curve) for future real activity (recessions). A vector autoregressive model was adopted for the data analysis. Four (4) different VAR equations were specified according to the total number of variables under study. The 4-variables are real GDP growth (RGDP_G), yield curve (YC), consumer price index (CPI) and exchange rate volatility index (EVIX). One major finding of the paper remains the observation of the yield curve’s predictive ability on recessions. This was observed from the monetary policy tightening of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), which leads to flattening of the yield curve as it reduces the net interest margin, reduced credit supply or loans supply or credit advancement and finally reduced economic activities (recession). Based on this, it has been recommended that both short-term and long-term interest rates be raised simultaneously to avoid flattening of the YC and in essence to avoid the spiral through the balance sheet monetary policy transmission mechanism.
APPRAISAL OF FINANCING STRUCTURES FOR COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT IN SOUTH WESTERN NIGERIA
The development of local communities is generally an issue of global concern. This is also the case in South Western Nigeria, where most community development programmes in rural areas are usually truncated due to inadequate finances. In this regard, this study was conducted to assess the financing structures of community development in the region. The study employed expository and descriptive research techniques in carrying out this appraisal. Using data from annual budgets in the region from 2019 to 2023, the results revealed that among the states in the region, Lagos State recorded the highest internally generated revenue and statutory allocation from the federal government, while Ekiti State has the least. In terms of recurrent and capital expenditure, Lagos State also has the highest, while Ekiti State has the least. Based on these, the study recommends that communities in Southwest Nigeria should support the efforts of the state and local government by imposing levies and informal taxes to support their community development efforts. In addition, communities can reach out to philanthropists within the community to donate for community development or engage private institutions for project concession.
FOOD SECURITY AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT IN NIGERIA
Sustainable economic development remains one of the most powerful instruments for enhancing output, reducing poverty and improving the quality of life. However, Nigeria is faced with enormous development challenges such as high unemployment rate, inflation, high poverty rate, low institutional quality, huge infrastructure gap amongst others. To examine this concern, this study investigated the impact of food security on economic development in Nigeria using auto regressive distributed lag model (ARDL) estimation technique with time series data from 1990 to 2023. The ARDL results revealed that an increase in food utilization increased economic development in the short run, and decreased it in the long run. Additionally, the results showed that food availability, food accessibility and food stability decreased economic development in the short run. Meanwhile, in the long run, food availability, food accessibility, and food stability increased economic development in Nigeria. Furthermore, food inflation and climate change have negative impact on economic development in Nigeria both in the long and short run. Arable land however has positive impact in the short run and negative impact in the long run. Therefore, it is recommended that local food markets be promoted and small and medium sized enterprises encouraged to invest in agro-processing by creating an enabling environment and providing incentives for them. Also, the issue of insecurity should be tackled so that farmers can access farmlands.
IMPACT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA: MODERATING ROLE OF GOVERNANCE
Nigeria has attracted significant Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) with the expectation of driving growth through capital inflows, employment, and technology transfer. However, its actual impact remains uncertain due to weak governance, regulatory inconsistencies, and institutional inefficiencies. This raises the need to examine whether governance conditions shape the relationship between FDI and economic growth in Nigeria. This study therefore examines the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and economic growth in Nigeria, emphasizing the moderating role of governance. While FDI is often viewed as a catalyst for growth through capital inflow, employment generation, and technological transfer, its real impact remains ambiguous in Nigeria. The study utilizes annual time series data from 1996 to 2023, sourced from the Central Bank of Nigeria, World Bank’s World Development Indicators (WDI), and Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI). Employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and interaction terms between FDI and governance variables, the study finds that FDI has an insignificant effect on economic growth. However, the interaction between FDI and governance show a positive and significant effect on economic growth. These findings demonstrate the critical role governance play in unlocking the growth enhancing potential of FDI. The study recommends structural governance reforms, regulatory consistency, and diversification strategies as essential pathways for making FDI a viable tool for Nigeria's economic transformation.