Markov Chain Analysis of Manpower Data of a Nigerian University

Abstract

The revolving door policy upon which the appointment of Vice-Chancellors of
the Nigerian Universities is set appears to hasten the onset of dissonance and discontinuity
in the general institutional arrangements and polity. Moreover, little effort appears to have
been made to characterize manpower flow in relation to the manpower policies driving such
system in order to ascertain if they are congruent with the raison d’être of the institutions.
This study, which is an applied research, seeks to use the Markovian statistical tool to
unravel the dynamics of staff stock and flow in a typical first generation Nigerian
University with the ultimate intent of lucidly describing the existing manpower policy and
pointing to its future direction. A forty-year data of staff transition within the six well
defined states space, were transformed into frequency distributions which was ultimately
used to estimate the transition probability matrix (TPM) that substantiated into a valued
diagraph. Our research findings clearly suggest that about 47% of newly recruited staff exit
the employment system through normal retirement while a disturbing 53% leave by either
voluntary withdrawal or wastage. Possible attributions, or factors to blame, for this high
attrition rate is principally staff seeking and discovering greener pastures, and disciplinary
cases. The conclusion thereof is that, overall, in view of the favourable staff development
programme, the existing manpower policy can be described as liberal and firm, and above
all is tilted towards prime pumping capacity building. The research outcome, which is a
strategic imperative for Nigerian universities, provides game-changing solutions and
practical guides needful to align manpower policies to corporate goals.