Analysis and Prediction of Sea Level Variations in River Lokoja, Kogi State, Nigeria, over the period of 2010 - 2030

Abstract

With frequent fluctuations in river levels due to seasonal changes and climate factors, understanding these variations has become increasingly important for disaster management and infrastructural planning in flood-prone areas. This study utilizes historical water level and discharge data, collected from 2010 to 2020, to predict sea level trends over the next decade (2021–2030) using time series analysis in MATLAB. By employing a polynomial regression model, the study captured recurring seasonal patterns and project possible future changes in water levels and discharge rates. The findings indicate clear seasonal trends in water levels, with potential increases during peak rainy seasons that could elevate the risk of flooding. This study reveals that 2021 had the highest water level and discharge on record. Notably, a prediction indicates a substantial decline in water level and discharge by 2030. These predictions underscore the importance of preemptive measures, such as improved flood defense systems, urban planning adjustments, and community awareness programs. The study provides valuable insights for policymakers, environmental managers, and local stakeholders aiming to mitigate the adverse effects of rising water levels. Ultimately, the study contributes to a better understanding of river behavior in the region and highlights the need for sustainable approaches to address the challenges posed by sea level variations in Lokoja.