Geospatial Assessment of the Impacts of Precipitation and Temperature on Crop Yield at FUTA Research Farm, Ondo State, Nigeria

Abstract

Agricultural productivity is highly influenced by climatic factors such as temperature, and precipitation. This study geospatially evaluates the impact of climate variability on the Federal University of Technology Akure (FUTA) Research Farm over eleven planting seasons (2012–2022). Primary data, including crop yield measurements and GNSS observations for planting boundaries, were integrated with satellite imagery and climate records. Vegetative indices (NDVI and GCI) showed fluctuations, with an increase from 2014 to 2016, a decline from 2017 to 2019, and a subsequent rise in 2021–2022, indicating improved crop health. A weak negative correlation (-0.014) was found between temperature and crop yield, while precipitation exhibited a strong negative correlation (-0.821), suggesting excessive rainfall adversely impacts crop production. The correlation between GCI and yield (-0.001) was non-significant, emphasizing precipitation as a primary determinant of yield variations. These findings highlight the critical role of climate in agricultural productivity and the need for data-driven strategies to enhance farm resilience. This study provides valuable insights for sustainable farm management under changing climatic conditions. The study recommends the implementation of improved water management strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of climatic variability on crop yield at the FUTA Research Farm.