Spatial Pattern and Socioeconomic Determinants of Rural Poverty in Katsina State, Northwestern Nigeria

Abstract

Understanding the spatial dimension of poverty is essential for designing pro-poor, location-specific development interventions. This study examines the spatial pattern and socioeconomic determinants of rural poverty across all the Local Government Areas (LGAs) of Katsina State, Nigeria, in 2025. Using a multi-stage sampling procedure, the study surveyed 650 rural households across seven administrative clusters (Katsina, Daura, Funtua, Kankiya, Mani, Dutsin-Ma, and Malumfashi). The household survey captured employment and occupation, education, household size and dependency, land and livestock assets, housing conditions and tenure, access to basic household facilities, health status and physical access to health facilities, road and market accessibility, and agricultural extension services. Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) indices were computed to generate poverty incidence, depth and severity profiles for each LGA, while a multiple regression model was used to identify the socioeconomic correlates of poverty incidence. Results show marked spatial disparity: poverty incidence increases from south to north, ranging from about 54% in Katsina town to 76% in Sandamu, with the LGAs bordering the Niger Republic recording the highest incidence, depth and severity of poverty. The regression model explained 81.1% of the variation in poverty incidence (R² = 0.811), with road access, landlessness, dependency ratio, market access and household size emerging among the strongest predictors, alongside significant effects of education, household head's age, livestock value and extension service frequency. Land and income inequality, measured by Gini coefficients, were also higher in the northern and central clusters. The study concludes that geographic marginality, characterised by poor road and market access, high dependency ratios and constrained land access, rather than agricultural potential alone, is closely associated with the spatial concentration of rural poverty in Katsina State. It recommends targeted investment in rural road infrastructure, market access, agricultural extension, improved housing and basic services, healthcare accessibility, and girls' education as priority levers for poverty reduction.