Macroeconomic Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Yam productivity in Nigeria

Abstract

An analysis of the effects of climate change (CC) on yam productivity was carried out. The years' analysis covered from 1991 to 2022. The work assessed the influence of variables-rainfall, temperature, carbon dioxide emissions, sunshine duration, and relative humidity influenced yam productivity. Secondary data was analysed by using econometric models such as Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests. The findings showed the R2 value of 0.993, accompanied by an adjusted R2 of 0.96, indicate that the explanatory variables influence and sum up to account for 99.3% of the variation in Yam productivity in the period under study. This high R2 and adjusted R2 demonstrated that the model expressed the dynamics of Yam productivity. The lag of average relative humidity (LN (ARELH (-1))) shows a negative and significant effect on yam productivity with a coefficient of -0.487757 (p = 0.0343). of average annual(AN) rainfall (LN(ARF (-1))), average annual temperature (LN(ATEMP (-1))), average annual Co2 emissions (LN(ACDE (-1))), and AN relative humidity (LN(ARELH(-1))) exhibit significant impacts on yam productivity. The second lag of the inflation rate (LN(INFR(-2))) is significant and positive. The coefficient is 0.084980 (p = 0.0054), suggesting that positive inflation rates in the past positively influence yam productivity.